US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

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US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by sharperhawk on Thu Nov 30, 2017 8:55 am

From a USA Today article:
A whopping 57% of the nation’s children and teens will be obese by age 35 if current trends continue, according to a sobering new study out Wednesday.

The research, published in the New England Journal of Medicine, goes beyond previous studies suggesting unhealthy childhood weights often lead to adult obesity. It suggests that while heavy children face the highest risk, even those who make it to age 20 in good shape face substantial peril in a world where obesity could soon be the new normal....

For example, a severely obese 5-year-old child faces an 89% risk of midlife obesity; a normal weight peer has a 53% risk. At age 19, a severely obese teen faces a 94% risk of being obese at 35; a normal-weight peer has a 30% risk.



I often have the thought that, on average, we may have to consider a couple of generations of adults to be lost in the battle - though of course, some individuals will buck the trend. What is frustrating and ominous is that even when people agree that we're headed for a future trainwreck, we can't agree that it requires public policies and not just sermons and preaching.
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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by ONTARIO on Thu Nov 30, 2017 9:20 am

I agree with the notion of public policy. I was listening to a Robb Wolfe podcast this morning and he had Chris Kesser on. They were talking about the obesity trend and how a huge number of kids are now being diagnosed as diabetic as young as 8 years old.  His theory is that SAD will cause such obesity, and therefore, such enormous numbers of individuals with chronic disease that the sick-care-system will simply implode and the country will become bankrupt due to medical costs.

He was saying that if a 40 yr old adult is diagnosed with Type II and lives to be 85 years old the medical costs for the diabetes alone (not including other disease process that occur due to diabetes) will cost $685,000. It's a recipe for disaster.

I'm glad  my kids are fit and not obese.

Interesting tidbit....my son, who is the picture of health developed a scaly dark skin patch on the front of his neck. Of course, this can be a sign of diabetes. He does not fit the profile in any way but I still pulled out the glucometer and took a few readings. Then we all thought that we would take readings just to see where we're at.  Even after a meal none of us were over 7 mmol/L. In Canada a normal fasting level would be between 4-7 and after a meal anywhere from 5-10. My point is that I completely believe it is because of our lifestyle that we have these low numbers of blood sugar.

I see kids eating donuts and Cocoa-Puffs for breakfast and I cringe. One has to wonder what their blood glucose levels are.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by srinath_69 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:43 pm

This sort of ties into my college cafe buffet experience. I'm betting we're looking at several decades of fatter and fatter people - like those cartoon people in Wall-e.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by Narrowminded on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:28 pm

I'm curious though if public policy would really make a difference at this point. We have drug companies who definitely don't want to see a change, they'd lose tons of money in the long run. They're big and powerful.

Then you have the physicians who receive kick backs from the drug companies etc. So how would public policy help, would it even happen due to all the lobbying against it? I'm sure there would be a lot.

Then, of course, what about the people themselves. Would they change what they were eating? Due to watching my mother and my brother, I highly doubt it. My mom is Type 2 and thinks nothing of going to get an ice cream cone. My DB who is severely obese, had a heart attach 8 years ago and several stents placed, still will sit down and polish off a bag of chips, cookies etc. And believes everyone over a certain age should be on Statins no matter there cholesterol level. Even told me he plans to check out early on the obesity and alcohol plan. He's 2.5 years my junior.

Think of smoking. They've tried thru various legislations to regulate it, but people still smoke.

I'm not sure public policy would work.

Just my thoughts.
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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by ONTARIO on Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:55 pm

Narrowminded wrote:I'm curious though if public policy would really make a difference at this point.  We have drug companies who definitely don't want to see a change, they'd lose tons of money in the long run.  They're big and powerful.  

Then you have the physicians who receive kick backs from the drug companies etc.  So how would public policy help, would it even happen due to all the lobbying against it?  I'm sure there would be a lot.

Then, of course, what about the people themselves.  Would they change what they were eating?  Due to watching my mother and my brother, I highly doubt it.  My mom is Type 2 and thinks nothing of going to get an ice cream cone.  My DB who is severely obese, had a heart attach 8 years ago and several stents placed, still will sit down and polish off a bag of chips, cookies etc. And believes everyone over a certain age should be on Statins no matter there cholesterol level.  Even told me he plans to check out early on the obesity and alcohol plan.  He's 2.5 years my junior.

Think of smoking.  They've tried thru various legislations to regulate it, but people still smoke.

I'm not sure public policy would work.

Just my thoughts.

Chris Kesser said this as well. He line of thinking was that if you went up to an obese person or a person with diabetes and asked them if they thought they were doing all the right things and eating the right foods they would tell you, if they were honest, that they weren't. They know they're not eating right. Kesser's point is that what we need is a system that helps people make change. To help them apply what they know. Most people know how to eat right and exercise. They're just not, for a myriad of reasons, applying their knowledge.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by Narrowminded on Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:14 pm

I tried with an N=1, N being my mom, for her, a system to help her didn't work. She lived with me for a month, so more than the quoted 21 days to make a habit. I had her eating better. Mostly just balanced what she already ate, and took away gluten and no ice cream/cookies/etc. During that time, her A1C went down, she had to reduce her insulin and we talked about the money saving of that alone, not to mention the good it was doing in her body. When she moved back home she went right back to eating the way she had been. Not sure even helping someone change will actually keep them doing it in the long run, not if they don't want to. She told my daughter that i'd have her eating "bread and water". As in the old starvation sayings. My daughter is to young to have heard that one and took it literally and told her no Grandma she wouldn't have you eating just bread. Smile

For my Mom, she doesn't want to change. She'd rather pop a pill or shoot some insulin and eat what she wants to eat. Of course she grew up in the era of Physicians know best, they are on the pedastal and if they say jump you say how high. However, if she can read it in Prevention mag, she'll follow it, but coming from me - no dice. I did get her to read Grain Brain she thought it interesting. The end.

Actually I went with her to the diabetic educator, this gal did a commendable job. Not primal and she didn't get rid of gluten, but she focused on protein and fats and eating more balanced overall. Considering I knew it was going to be from conventional wisdom, I was pleased as I could be. Mom ignored it of course.

Sorry long winded example.
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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by sharperhawk on Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:51 pm

I think that the smoking rate is a triumph for public policy. It's not zero, but look at the trend over the years. We can only hope that we see such a downward line for obesity, but it won't happen on its own.

Part of what happens with a good program is that children take the message home with them. They nag their parents about how bad smoking is, how they should wear seat belts, etc. I recently heard a friend talk about how her young teenage daughter keeps her eye on the speedometer and comments when it goes above the speed limit. The government starts the ball rolling, but it's one part of a complex machinery. At the moment, there is not the strong message that unhealthy lifestyle is a serious threat to the security of every country.

On the old forum, I had a post with links about school lunch programs in Japan and the US. Japan was able to slow down its childhood obesity rate dramatically. The article about the US is more mixed, but it has a lot of details about how we have gotten such efforts wrong in the past. See goo.gl/CdLVh3
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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by srinath_69 on Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:56 pm

I have 8-10 people I am banging my head against the wall with in a similar situation. The only one following my advice is my brother, who's a genuine 12-13% BF and has never been heavier than 175lb ,and he's now IF and low carb,

Anyway the problem with most pre-diabetics is this. Linearity decreases with increasing insulin resistance.

In other words, eating 1/2 your regular diet for the day does not produce 1/2 the insulin AUC as you are more and more Insulin Resistant.
Eat 1/2 your food across the board, and you may get 75% of the insulin, or 80% or 90%. A non IR person gets ~50% ... as you get more and more IR, you get further and further away from 50%.

If your insulin is above the threshold, you will not make a dent in your fat. That number is individual and dependant on a lot of factors. But it has to be in the single digits.

So it seems like they're suffering and not getting anywhere. Once they understand this, you will get further in educating people and getting the correct perspective on their diet.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by ONTARIO on Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:38 pm




And here is a perfect example of why we have an obesity epidemic. This is a picture from a family member. This is the Dec 1st breakfast. All the kids are overweight and the 13 yr old is obese. And the adults are a teacher and a nurse - so, learned people. And to post it publicly on FB shows there is no shame.

It hurts my heart when I see these kids I care about being fed this crap.

Chocolate croissant, cookies, chocolate chip muffins and skittles candies. All washed down with carbonated juice.

On a funny note my own 17 yr old saw the FB pic and said, "well, at least there's fruity Skittles". He has a very sarcastic sense of humour! He followed that by saying, " how about some eggs?".

Gah!!!!

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by srinath_69 on Fri Dec 01, 2017 3:07 pm

Yikes. The carbs are glycating my insides after crawling through my optic nerve.
BTW, I had someone in the medical field say something very very stupid to me yesterday about how fat converts itself to carbs when you eat it. Thankfully I wasn't listening so I didn't strangle her or yell @ her "where did you go to medical school"

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by Heuristicfireflower on Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:52 pm

We need a Primal cooking show to supersede Martha, Lidia, Nick and all the flour and pasta crew on TV. I've seen Perlmutter and a few other folks promoting actual good science and diet, but, still amazed at the widespread ignorance of food's impact on health.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by srinath_69 on Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:58 am

Heuristicfireflower wrote:We need a Primal cooking show to supersede Martha, Lidia, Nick and all the flour and pasta crew on TV.  I've seen Perlmutter and a few other folks promoting actual good science and diet, but, still amazed at the widespread ignorance of food's impact on health.


There is these 2 old guys showing off their 6 pack while cooking. A bit tacky ... No, make that very very tacky.

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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by sharperhawk on Fri Jan 26, 2018 1:30 pm

Military families bolster the case that obesity is indeed contagious

The theory is based on observations by Dr. Nicholas Christakis of Yale and James Fowler of UC San Diego, who found that various kinds of behaviors appear to propagate through social networks. They mapped out friend and family relationships among three generations of people who participated in the long-running Framingham Heart Study and found that things like smoking, happiness and divorce seemed to spread as if they were contagious.

Obesity was one of the very first social contagions they identified. In a 2007 study in the New England Journal of Medicine, they reported that if a person's friend, sibling or spouse became obese in a certain period of time, the chances that he or she would become obese as well increased by 37% to 57%....

After adjusting for factors like age, sex, education, income and military rank, the researchers found that members of military families were more likely to be overweight or obese if they had been deployed to a county where obesity was more of a norm.

For every 1 percentage-point increase in the county obesity rate, the odds that a teen would be overweight or obese went up by 4% to 6%. In addition, for every 1 percentage-point increase in the county obesity rate, the odds that a parent would be obese went up by 5%....

The more that military families were "exposed" to their surrounding community, the more their weight status was tied to the people around them. For instance, the relationship between body mass index and the county obesity rate was stronger for teens who had lived on or near a particular Army base for more than two years compared with teens who were newer arrivals. Also, the link was stronger for families who lived off-base than for those who lived on-base.

The original journal article is "Association of Exposure to Communities With Higher Ratios of Obesity with Increased Body Mass Index and Risk of Overweight and Obesity Among Parents and Children" in JAMA Pediatrics.
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Re: US children on track for 57% obesity rate at 35

Post by Rig D on Fri Jan 26, 2018 2:23 pm

No surprise that exposure to people who have bad eating habits is catching. When in a social eating situation, it is pretty hard for the average person to hold on to their correct dietary habits when presented with nothing but cookies, cakes, do-nuts, etc, or the business meeting "continental breakfast."

But if it is contagious, do you think Eli Lilly and peers will be coming out with a vaccine for it? Rolling Eyes
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